Monday, July 15, 2024

The Minish Cap: Figurine Gallery Probabilities

at the entrance to the figurine gallery with nine hearts

Currently, I'm replaying The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap on the Nintendo Switch and one of the worst parts of the game always has been the Figurine Gallery, at least if you are looking to fully complete everything, to get that Carlov Medal and the last Piece of Heart. Now, with the rewind feature of the Nintendo Switch Online libraries I thought that I could easily cheese this minigame – bet a single Mysterious Shell and if I don't get a new figurine, I will simply rewind. Sounds good, right?

Especially in the higher percentages this should work like a charm, but to my surprise it didn't. No matter how many times I went back, I kept getting the same figurine. So, I did some experimentation and noticed that three things are predetermined right after your previous pull or when you enter the room:

  • What duplicate figurine you will get on a failure.
  • What new figurine you will get on a success.
  • The minimum percentage required for a success.

At the time you're placing your bet all of this is already set. So, either you pay the right amount to get the new figurine or you don't. You could compare this to the bargaining system in Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland, where you have to guess how many Rupees someone might want, but the difference here is that the required amount changes after each bet.

As an example, in one case the game wanted me to reach 75% in order to obtain Nayru and anything below would score me Din, who I already had. In this scenario, no matter how many times I rewind, unless I pay enough shells for the 75%, I will always get Din. The only way to reset this is to rewind back before you start making the trade and then leave the room. You can also just take the loss and bet a single shell, which earns you five Rupees.

There also seem to be these wildcard moments every so often, where the required minimum is at 0% and you will get a new figurine from a single shell, no matter how low this places your bet. That's why you can still commonly get new figurines even with only 1% at the end.

So, what's the best strategy knowing all this? Actually... nothing much changes. The best strategy always has been to only ever bet a single Mysterious Shell until you drop to the lower percentages (below 15% or so), where you want to start to bet a few more.

using rewind to go back to the shell bet prompt

But what the rewind feature and Suspend Points allow you here is testing for the required amount, at least approximately. First you should test if a single shell is enough, in which case you don't have to rewind at all. If it's not enough, next you should test for the highest amount you want to spend on a new figurine, e.g. 50 shells. If it costs more than that, then you want to reset (or trade a single shell for five Rupees).

If it's below your maximum, you can still check for lower amounts to see what's possible. You don't have to find the exact minimum, but you also don't want to be too wasteful. This way you can optimize your spendings and get the most out of the shells that you have.

In fact, for the first time ever (on official hardware at least) I was able to obtain all figurines without the need to grind for Mysterious Shells. What you get from treasure chests was enough for the 130 figurines. I even have so many shells left that I can go with full 100% for each of the six post-game figurines and then still have leftovers. It's completely different from my experiences in the past, where I always ran out of shells to burn eventually.

The rewind feature also helps with treasure chests full of Mysterious Shells. If you don't need them yet and the chest is found at an accessible location (ideally marked after a Kinstone fusion), you can simply rewind and leave the chest for later, so you don't hit that 999 shell limit just yet. That's especially a good idea whenever you get 200 shells at once. (However, those will be replaced with 50 Rupees, should you already have the Carlov Medal, so you also don't want to let them rot.)

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